Purchase costs of zero emission in the united states to meet the future phase 3 GHG standards
Author: Yihao Xie, Hussein Basma, Felipe Rodríguez
This study provides updated data on the upfront cost of zero-emission trucks. The assessment provides cost estimates up to 2040 for heavy-duty truck segments in the United States relevant to the upcoming Phase 3 greenhouse gas standards. The reductions of battery costs are one of the largest contributors to enabling price parity between battery-electric and diesel trucks. The analysis finds that while battery costs for zero-emission trucks and buses lag behind electric cars in cost reductions, their costs are expected to halve by 2030 compared to 2022, reaching $120/kWh at the pack level. Electric drive systems—including the transmission, motor, and inver—are forecasted to see cost reductions of over 60% by 2030, reaching $23/kW. Fuel cell systems are also expected to see costs drop by nearly two-thirds by 2030 compared to current levels, reaching $300/kW. Hydrogen tank costs are expected to drop by only one-third over the same period, reaching $850/kg of hydrogen. The upfront cost parity between battery electric trucks and their diesel counterparts is expected to be achieved in the late 2020s or early 2030s for most truck segments. The exception is long-haul tractor-trucks, for which the large batteries will continue to be the dominant cost item. By 2040, fuel-cell electric trucks will have a similar price to battery-electric and diesel trucks.